What will the wood industry be like in 2025?

Source: diendandoanhnghiep.vn

The recovery of the US market continues to be the main driving force behind the growth of Vietnam’s wood and wood products exports in 2025.

Export target reaches about 18 billion USD

According to data from the General Department of Customs, the export value of wood and wood products (G&SPG) in 2024 reached 16.25 billion USD, an increase of 20.3% compared to 2023. Of which, the export value of wood products is estimated at 11.2 billion USD, an increase of 21.9% compared to 2023.

By 2025, the wood industry aims to export 18 billion USD (In the photo, workers produce wooden furniture for export at S Furniture Joint Stock Company).

Compared to the old record set in 2022 (15.8 billion USD), the export turnover of wood in 2024 has exceeded about 500 million USD. Along with wood, non-timber forest products also contributed 1.04 billion USD in 2024, helping the total export value of the entire forestry industry reach about 17.3 billion USD.

In terms of markets, the US still holds the No. 1 position for Vietnam’s wood industry exports. Specifically, in 2024, the export value of Vietnam’s G&SPG to the US market reached 9.1 billion USD, accounting for 56% of Vietnam’s total export turnover of G&SPG.

According to the assessment of the Department of Forestry, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, the export prospect of G&SPG in 2025 is forecasted to be positive, with the export target reaching about 18 billion USD. However, the export prospects of the wood industry in 2025 depend on many factors, including global economic recovery, consumer demand in major markets, trade policies, and the competitiveness of enterprises in the industry.

The main export markets bring export prospects to the wood industry, in which the US market leads, but strong competitive pressure from other suppliers such as China, Malaysia, Indonesia, this requires Vietnamese enterprises to focus on developing products with added value.

Next is the EU market, the EVFTA (Vietnam – EU Free Trade Agreement) continues to bring tariff advantages, expanding opportunities for wood and processed products. In the Chinese market, demand is increasing due to urbanization and construction development. However, enterprises will have to meet stricter requirements on legal wood origin.

Assessing the export target of 18 billion USD in 2025, Mr. Huynh Thanh Van – Chairman of the Board of Directors of S Furniture Company said that this target is completely achievable. Because currently, the order signals of enterprises have also shown to be much more positive than in 2024. Particularly for S Furniture, Mr. Van expects that in 2025, it will grow by 25-30%.

Mr. Huynh Thanh Van – Chairman of the Board of Directors of S Furniture Company believes that the export target of 18 billion USD by 2025 of the wood industry is completely achievable – Photo: NVCC.

According to Mr. Van, good preparation by businesses is also one of the factors helping the wood industry achieve its 2025 goals. Specifically, businesses in the industry are focusing heavily on digital transformation, applying digital to production and business, helping to reduce costs and product prices. The application of advanced and modern production technologies not only helps reduce labor costs, but also increases product quality.

In addition, businesses are now very concerned about environmental issues, especially green environment and green transformation. Because green transformation is now a mandatory requirement from customers and the world market, if not transformed, businesses will face many risks.

According to Mr. Van, the number of orders moving from China to Vietnam is also very large, because Vietnam’s infrastructure has also improved a lot compared to before; the supporting industry serving the wood industry has also developed; Skilled workers, producing beautiful, high-quality products… these are the competitive advantages of Vietnamese enterprises compared to other countries in the region.

The US market continues to be a bright spot.

Assessing the wood export market of Vietnam, especially the US market, Mr. Huynh Thanh Van said that the US market is one of the potential and very important markets for the wood industry of Vietnam. Currently, the US market is very stable, moreover, the US has just had a very large forest fire, many large projects were lost, this will be a great opportunity for Vietnamese wooden furniture manufacturing enterprises, when the demand for rebuilding houses and projects will be very large in the coming years.

However, in order to meet the needs of importers from the US, EU, UK… Mr. Van said that Vietnamese enterprises must obtain certificates such as BSCI, SMETA, FSC, COC, these are certificates of regulations and standards when exporting goods to demanding markets. If they do not meet these standards, they will lose the opportunity to export goods to this very potential market.

In addition, the US anti-dumping investigation can put businesses at risk, so businesses need to step up training for employees and workers to promptly grasp US standards and regulations, to avoid being investigated for anti-dumping and having their taxes increased.

“Another factor that is very important not only for the US market, but also for many other demanding markets such as Japan and Europe, is the factors related to the origin of wood products. Businesses also need to pay attention to the factor of sustainable development, integrating social responsibility into production and business activities. If done well, businesses will have many advantages and the opportunity to receive large orders will also be higher,” Mr. Huynh Thanh Van added.

Mr. Vo Duc Anh, an analyst at MBS Research, also assessed that the US market will continue to be a bright spot to promote G&SPG export growth in 2025. According to Mr. Anh, with the FED’s monetary easing policy extending into 2025, the US housing market is expected to recover, thereby helping the number of construction permits to improve by 8.6% to 1.550 million in the first half of 2025.

“Because this is a quick indicator and it will take 4-5 months to reflect in the number of new houses, the number of new houses sold will improve strongly in the second half of 2025, thereby promoting G&SPG consumption demand,” Mr. Vo Duc Anh commented.

He also said that although the tax policy of the new US President’s term creates challenges in the short term, it will be a driving force to promote G&SPG export growth in the medium and long term.

MBS Research experts assess that the new tax policy in the medium and long term will create opportunities for G&SPG exporting enterprises and help Vietnam expand its market share in the US. After applying the new tax rate, the prices of products originating from China will be higher, thereby causing Americans to switch to more affordable alternative products.

“In the medium and long term, we expect the new tax policy in the US and the shifting trend of US consumers to have a positive impact on Vietnam’s G&SPG consumption demand, helping G&SPG export output continue to grow strongly in 2025”, Mr. Vo Duc Anh commented.